Cincinnati and Dayton Player Projections Release

Plus Notes and Betting Insights

Notes below the table

Jizzle James (#2, Cincinnati)

Points Over 6.5 (-150)

• Predicted: ~10.65

• Difference from line: 10.65 - 6.5 = 4.15

• Percentage Edge: (4.15 / 6.5) * 100% ≈ 63.85%
  Interpretation: The prediction is ~63.85% above the posted line. Even with the juice at -150 (implying about a 60% breakeven probability), this large positive gap suggests strong value.

Assists Over 3.5 (-120)

• Predicted: ~4.63

• Difference: 4.63 - 3.5 = 1.13

• Percentage Edge: (1.13 / 3.5) * 100% ≈ 32.2%
  Interpretation: The prediction is ~32% above the line. With odds near even money, this also appears to be a solid +EV (expected value) scenario.

Rebounds Over 2.5 (-165)

• Predicted: ~3.27

• Difference: 3.27 - 2.5 = 0.77

• Percentage Edge: (0.77 / 2.5) * 100% ≈ 30.8%
  Interpretation: Although there is a healthy ~30.8% edge over the line, the price (-165) is steeper. Still, the model suggests the Over is likely, just less of a bargain due to the juice.

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Simas Lukosius (#41, Cincinnati)

Assists Over 2.5 (+100)

• Predicted: ~3.04

• Difference: 3.04 - 2.5 = 0.54

• Percentage Edge: (0.54 / 2.5) * 100% ≈ 21.6%
  Interpretation: About a 21.6% margin above the line at even money is quite appealing, making this a notable value bet.

Points 14.5 (Line vs. Predicted ≈12.98)

• The prediction is under the line, so no positive edge for the Over.

• Slight lean to Under, but at -135 and only about 1.5 points difference (~10.3% below line), it’s less compelling than the big edges above.

Rebounds 3.5 (Predicted ≈3.22)

• Slightly under the line, so no positive edge on the Over.

• Under is juiced at -150 and we only have about a (3.22-3.5)/3.5 = -8% difference, not a good value spot.

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